Rise in death rates

There has been a substantial increase in death rates in England and Wales – and no one seems to know why.

In the first seven weeks of 2018, there were an extra 10,375 deaths (a rise of 12.4%) compared with the previous five years.

Writing in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) Lucinda Hiam, a GP and Honorary Researcher at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Disease, and Professor Danny Dorling from the University of Oxford, say the Government is failing to investigate rising death rates and worsening health.

Although the deaths increase cannot be explained by an ageing population, flu epidemic, or cold weather, Hiam and Dorling note unusual trends in the NHS.

On 2 January, thousands of non-urgent operations were cancelled and many hospitals were at or beyond safe working levels.

The writers say the past five years have been challenging for health outcomes in the UK. They also point out that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently reduced its projections of life expectancy for men and women in the UK by almost a year each – it’s estimated more than a million lives will end earlier than expected.

Meanwhile, it is not only the figures for older people that are concerning. The infant mortality rates for the UK’s poorest families have risen significantly since 2011. In 1990, the UK ranked seventh best in Europe by neonatal mortality rate. Only six countries had better outcomes. By 2015, it ranked 19th.

On 1 March, ONS announced that there had been “noticeable falls in female life expectancy at birth in the 20 per cent most deprived populations in England”. The more affluent are affected by these trends too. The rise in life expectancy for better-off groups of men and women has abruptly slowed compared with the 1890-2010 norm.

Dr Hiam said: “Health outcomes in the UK have been worsening over recent years, and mortality figures from the ONS for the first seven weeks of the year are cause for further alarm.

“It is time for an urgent investigation to explore why for some in the UK, unlike Europe, life expectancy is not only stalling, but reversing.”

Along with Professor Dorling, Hiam believes there is “a clear lack of consensus” over the reasons for the rise in deaths – and they call for urgent investigation by the Health Select Committee of the House of Commons.

“The latest figures for this year make the case for an investigation stronger and more urgent with each passing day.”

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